n035  1104  19 Dec 82
BC-POLICY-HUNGARY(COX)
By ROBERT D. KAPLAN
c. 1982 Cox News Service
     BUDAPEST, Hungary - This Eastern-bloc pioneer in economic reform
now seeks an independent status in foreign affairs as well.
     ''We in Eastern Europe are more interested in detente than the
Soviet Union, and at the same time, the Soviet Union has less
economic control over us than it used to,'' said Peter Rajcsanyi of
the Hungarian Institute of International Relations, this nation's
main think-tank.
     At the foreign ministry, an official of department-head status said
the Soviet Union and the United States are ''like men on a mountain
who only see the contours of the valley below - while we in Hungary
are actually in the valley and thus able to see the nuances.... We
often have tough arguments with them (the Soviets), which of course
we keep out of our papers.''
     Jozsef Balazs, another expert in East-West relations at the
International Relations Institute, said that ''though detente has
soured between the two superpowers, it still exists between East and
West Europe. So we in Europe seek to become a third force between the
United States and the Soviet Union. But this development is still in
the embryonic stage.''
     Through meetings with diplomats and political scientists here, it
becomes clear that fear is motivating Hungarian officials into
talking more and more like officials in Western Europe: fear of
theater nuclear warfare.
     ''If there are not concrete reductions soon, it is not only
possible but inevitable that nuclear war will happen here,'' said
Balazs.
     ''Unfortunately, the Americans and the Soviets talk at each other
but not to each other,'' the foreign ministry official said. ''We
hope for a summit between Ronald Reagan and Yuri Andropov even if no
big agreement is concluded afterwards. They must get to know each
other. We are united with Western Europe over fear of nuclear war.''
     The foreign ministry official sought to emphasize that although
many disagreements exist between the United States and the Soviet
Union, ''there is not one single issue in dispute between the U.S.
and Hungary.''
     Though Hungary has always been the economic radical of the Soviet
bloc, diplomats here have in the past been careful to sound like
their Soviet allies in foreign policy matters. Thus their independent
tone was somewhat striking.
     Regarding the leadership change in the Soviet Union, officials here
are worried about two things:
     -- That the Western press is creating excessively high expectations
about Andropov, the new Soviet Communist Party chief, which could
have dire consequences if these expectations are not met. Hungarians
feel the Western press emphasis on personality ''is careless and
shows no understanding of the Soviet system.''
     -- That if President Reagan does not grant Andropov a ''honeymoon''
of several months, the military wing of the Soviet power structure
will quickly gain ground in the fluid period after Andropov's
accession.
     Hungarian officials say Andropov is firmly in control and the
post-Brezhnev era in fact began before the former leader's death.
     Andropov was the Soviet ambasador to Hungary during the 1956
uprising, which was brutally repressed by the Russians. But according
to Janos Hajdu, chief editor of Hungarian television's weekly
political review, ''Andropov's instincts are liberal. What most
people even here do not realize is that Andropov supported the
reformist regime of Imre Nagy until almost the end, and it was the
people in Moscow who ordered the military intervention, not
Andropov.''
     Dr. Laszlo Kiss, also of the International Relations Institute in
Budapest, pointed out that ''Andropov has less power in the Soviet
Union than Reagan has in America, because of the strength of the
bureaucracy and the military'' in the Soviet Union.
     ''Andropov is neither the end of something old nor the beginning of
something new,'' according to Zsolt Szalay, head of the news
department of Hungarian National Radio. ''He represents a stage
between the generation of Soviet leaders whose world views were
formed by World War II and the deaths of 20 million Russians, and the
generation of leaders with little or no connection to the war.''
     However, most Hungarians attach less importance to the accession of
Andropov than Americans do. Like their counterparts in Western
Europe, Hungarians are far more concerned about the steady growth of
nuclear hardware, which goes on independently of leadership changes
and which Hungarians feel is most likely to be used on their
continent. Distributed by The New York Times News Service
    
nyt-12-19-82 1401est
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	When a specialist in one area of an organization's activity is
promoted to be head of the organization as a whole, it is common
that his area gets greater resources and that its techniques come
to play an increased role in achieving the organization's objectives.

	Now that Yurii Andropov has become General Secretary, we
should be alert for bolder and more imaginative use of his specialties,
especially spying, covert action and disinformation.

	A possible example is a recent Cox News Service story by
Robert Kaplan
from Budapest.  Named Hungarian officials identify Hungary with
as having the same worries and hopes about nuclear arms as the
West European peace movement and a detached attitude toward the
Soviet Union.  Maybe it's true and maybe it's more imaginative
Soviet disinformation than we have previously seen.